EDISON INVESTMENT RESEARCH LIMITED (LON:KEFI) Actinogen Medical (AGW): re-initation — Cognitive enhancer targeting key diseases
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Edison Investment Research Limited
London, UK, 20 October 2022
Actinogen Medical (AGW): re-initation — Cognitive enhancer targeting key diseases Actinogen Medical is developing its lead asset, small molecule Xanamem, a selective 11β-HSD1 inhibitor designed to cross the blood-brain barrier and target excess brain cortisol, which has been associated with cognitive impairment (CI). Actinogen is targeting two CI indications: for patients with mild CI in the early stages of Alzheimer’s disease (AD), and for patients with major depressive disorder (MDD). Positive XanaHES and Phase Ib XanaMIA results in healthy adults demonstrate the drug’s initial efficacy, and a recent analysis of biomarker-positive patients using newly available plasma samples from the previous XanADu study in mild AD also showed clinical activity. Actinogen plans to start the Phase IIb portion on XanaMIA in patients with biomarker-confirmed early AD in H1 CY23. The XanaCIDD proof-of-concept Phase II trial in MDD is also planned to start in Q422. Our valuation is A$651m or A$0.36 per share.
We value Actinogen at A$651m or A$0.36/share, based on a rNPV analysis largely driven by Xanamem for early AD. We use a 10.0% probability of success for Xanamem to reach the market in early AD. We apply a 12.5% probability for CI in MDD reflecting the cognitive improvement already shown in healthy patients.
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