EDISON INVESTMENT RESEARCH LIMITED (LON:KEFI) BerGenBio (BGBIO): Progressing towards key inflection points
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Edison Investment Research Limited
London, UK, 17 December 2020 BerGenBio (BGBIO): Progressing towards key inflection points BerGenBio has presented two positive datasets for its lead asset bemcentinib in acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) at ASH 2020. Following these data, we anticipate a registrational Phase III study of bemcentinib plus low-dose cytarabine (LDAC) in relapsed elderly AML patients to start in 2021. We still forecast the NDA submission for this indication in 2023 (FDA fast-track has been granted). Bemcentinib is an oral, first-in-class, highly selective AXL tyrosine kinase inhibitor in Phase II development for a range of cancers and could be the first selective AXL inhibitor to market. Data from the Phase II study in second-line NSCLC in combination with Keytruda are expected at WCLC (for details see our initiation report, Bemcentinib leading the AXL charge). We value BerGenBio at NOK59.1 per share.
We continue to value BerGenBio at NOK5.16bn or NOK59.1 per share based on a risk-adjusted NPV analysis. Our forecasts remain unchanged. The key drivers are bemcentinib in second-line NSCLC (peak sales $1.2bn, NOK40.7/share) and AML (peak sales $588m, NOK13.3/share) plus COVID-19 opportunity (NOK5.9/share).
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1155863 17-Dec-2020