Original-Research: The NAGA Group AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu The NAGA Group AG

Unternehmen: The NAGA Group AG
ISIN: DE000A161NR7

Anlass der Studie: Research Comment
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 4.30 Euro
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31/12/2021
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker

Strong sales and earnings growth continued in third quarter; forecasts and price target increased

With the publication of the preliminary half-year figures for 2020, it was already known that The NAGA Group AG (NAGA) had achieved the operational turn-around. After comparatively low sales and a negative earnings level in the previous year, the now published half-year report shows strong sales and earnings growth. In total, revenues increased almost sevenfold to EUR 11.67 million (previous year: EUR 1.67 million) and EBITDA was again clearly in the black at EUR 3.87 million (previous year: EUR -4.58 million). The fact that an EBITDA margin of 33.1% was achieved despite increased sales activities is particularly noteworthy. On the one hand, this demonstrates the high scalability of the main product NAGA Trader, which focuses on online brokerage. On the other hand, the company had significantly and sustainably reduced its cost structures in 2019 as part of a restructuring programme.

Even though the volatilities and thus high transaction figures in the course of the Covid 19 pandemic contributed to the success of the NAGA Trader, the significant increase in the number of new customers to 46,000 was also due to the accelerated and focused activities of the company. Over EUR 26 million (previous year: EUR 8.3 million) in new deposits were made and the trading volume represented by the NAGA Trader increased significantly to around EUR 50 billion (previous year: EUR 16.5 billion).

The momentum shown in the first half of the year continued in the third quarter of 2020. Despite a calming of the capital markets, revenues of EUR7.1 million and EBITDA of EUR1.9 million (EBITDA margin: 26.8%) were achieved in the summer quarter. After nine months in 2020, revenue totalled EUR18.7 million and EBITDA EUR5.8 million. The NAGA management recently reaffirmed the forecasts published in July 2020, according to which revenues of between EUR 22 and 24 million and EBITDA of between EUR 5.5 and 6.0 million are to be achieved on a full-year basis. When compared to the figures achieved after nine months, it becomes clear that these forecasts should be easily achievable. Particularly as the current fourth quarter is again characterised by rising transaction figures due to various factors (US presidential election; second Covid-19-wave).

We are adjusting our previous forecasts for 2020 upwards. We now expect revenues of EUR 24.89 million (previous GBC forecast: EUR 23.75 million) and EBITDA of EUR 6.49 million (previous GBC forecast: EUR 5.85 million). This forecast increase provides a higher basis for our specific forecasts for the next two financial years, which we are also raising. The basis for our expected revenue growth of 50% (2021e) and 17.5% (2022e) is the increasing awareness of the NAGA Trader and the company's expansion activities. In addition to the market entry in China, activities in Australia and South America, with the associated additional sales potential, are to be launched from the coming financial year.

As part of our DCF valuation model, we have calculated a new price target of EUR4.30 (previously: EUR3.75) per share. Based on the current share price, we assign a BUY rating.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/21914.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
Jörg Grunwald
Vorstand
GBC AG
Halderstrasse 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR. Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Date (time) Completion: 07/12/20 (8:07 am) Date (time) first transmission: 07/12/20 (09:00 am)

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