Original-Research: creditshelf AG - von NuWays AG

Einstufung von NuWays AG zu creditshelf AG

Unternehmen: creditshelf AG
ISIN: DE000A2LQUA5

Anlass der Studie: Q3 Review
Empfehlung: HOLD
seit: 13.11.2023
Kursziel: € 4,10
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Frederik Jarchow

Weak Q3 // No sales without refinancing; chg

Topic: Last week, creditshelf announced Q3 figures that came in as weak as anticipated as the refinancing issue remained unsolved. In detail:

Sales stand at € 0.7m (-43% yoy; -50% qoq), in line with prelims, published already last week. While brokered volume of only € 7.5m (-75% yoy, -65% qoq) literally fell of the cliff and came in even lower than already reflected in our reduced estimates (eNuW: € 11m), margins on the borrower side slightly increased to 4.6% (vs 3.3% in Q3´22 vs 4.0% in Q2), but do no change the overall picture. Revenues from service and advisory fees to the tune of € 0.5m partially compensated for the absence of significant commissions from loan brokerage (€ 0.3m, -66% yoy).

EBIT came in at € -0.1m (vs € -0.9m in Q3´22 vs € -0.4m in Q2) better than expected (eNuW: € -0.2m). Importantly, the lower topline, mostly equalized by other operating revenues (€ 1.2m) stemming from a debt waiver by the company´s patron, the reversal of provisions for virtual participation shares and refunds of legal costs.

The weak Q3 results are fully due to the still unsolved refinancing issue that prevent creditshelf from serving the high demand for alternative funding. Consequently, management has reduced its sales guidance for FY23 already a week earlier to € 4.0-5.0m sales, while the EBIT guidance of € -2m to € -1m remained untouched. Assuming that the financing issue last at least until year end, our estimates of € 4.2m are at the lower end of the rather unspecific guidance range.

While we still believe that 1) brokered volumes should lift-off as soon as the funding issue is solved (demand for SME loans was 25x higher than supply in H1) and 2) creditshelf is still good address for German SME´s, we do not expect the company to survive another year without new refinancing sources, as Obotritia is either not able or not willing to pay the junior tranche that would unlock the senior tranche of Goldman Sachs (c. € 100m).

In order to reflect 1) the very weak Q3 and the clouded outlook without a quick solution on the funding side on the one hand and 2) the potential of the company that should materialize as soon as the refinancing issue is solved on the other hand, we reiterate HOLD with a slightly reduced PT of € 4.1, based on DCF.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/28231.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++
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-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------

Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.